Call or Fold? Facing River Bet With a Set of Deuces
DECISION POINT: In a no-limit hold'em cash game, you raise from early position with 2?2? and get three callers. The flop comes A?J?2?. You bet and two of your opponents call. The turn is the 6?. You bet again, and this time only one opponent calls. The river is the 8?. You check, and your opponent moves all in.
PRO ANSWER: Given that we checked the river, we must call the all-in bet.
Normally, we could take the line of betting the flop, turn, and river with big hands such as a set. This is especially profitable with bottom set, since we are more likely to get action from AxXx or JxXx hands (we don't block any of those cards).
That said, given that there are a few missed draws out there (e.g., any spade draw, a draw to a wheel) plus the fact that stacks are deep (making it less likely our opponent will stack off with AxQx-type hands), the check on the river here is fine some of the time.
Checking here allows our opponent to bluff with missed draws, while the player will still bet for value with most of the hands that will call an all-in if we shove first to act.
If stacks were slightly deeper, we could also make a fake blocking bet on the river, allowing our opponent to call with AxQx-type hands and occasionally bluff shove with missed draws. In this spot we're a little too shallow on the river to make that play.
Overall, we should never fold this hand on the river, as we beat too much of our opponent's value range (any of the two-pair AxXx hands) plus our opponent has a decent number of bluffs (spade draws).
Calling is the best play.
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